The Defence debate.
China took over Tibet and the World did nothing.
After World War 2 Russia took over the whole of Eastern Europe with the help of Roosevelt at Yalta and the World did nothing.
Nationalism stopped the whole of Europe becoming Russian and Communist after W.W.2. and Nationalism broke up Russia and it’s satellites after the death of Stalin. The U.N. did nothing and the U.N. will do nothing if China decides that it is in her interests to take over Australia’s resources by force.
This is not the view of Australia’s most senior intelligence chiefs who hold the view that China’s military expansion poses little threat to Australia’s long term security.(The Weekend Australian April,11-12,2009. p.1and 2. The Defence Department disagrees.)
In the stand off between the “intelligence doves”and defence hawks the matter has gone all the way to Kevin Rudd personally and I must admit that I was surprised and pleased when Rudd sided with the hawks and will expand Australia’s sea and air defences.
As is to be expected in our democracy there are dissenting views and Alan Dupont (The Australian,14.4.09,p.10) is one such. He believes that China’s modernisation is essentially defensive and even if the hawks were right,we would not have the capacity to deter China militarily,short of developing nuclear weapons.
Exactly,Canada is armed with nuclear submarines and we too should invest in at least five atomic submarines,armed with balistic missiles and cruise missiles with atomic war heads,only that would deter China.
I remember that in the 1930′s many people world wide were of the opinion that Hitler was not a threat and that arming ourselves would only make him afraid and more prone to arm Germany against us.
This view was very strong in Britain,where Hitler was considered a nice reasonable man,who had no interest in war and with whom our leader “Chamberlain”could talk.
In the end we started to arm almost too late and the fall of France nearly resulted in the fall of England.
In 1940 the same people who objected to England rearming tried,through Lord Halifax,to surrender England to Germany. As you would expect I have a great mistrust of all people who would convince me that we should not fear China and anyway,if she does attack us,we cannot defend ourselves and should surrender.
Before deciding our defence policy,a senior Australian delegation including Air Chief Marshall Houston and Mr. Warner,Defence Department secretary,visited Washington in May to gauge U.S. strategic opinion on issues relevant to the new defence white papers out at the end of the month. (The Australian,15.4.09,p.6.). They were surprised to learn that Washington saw China as less of a potential threat than they did.
When dealing with foreign policy always remember a comment by an English Prime Minister who said,“Nations do not have friends only interests.”
America has invested heavily in Chinese industry and China and America are quoted in some quarters as being the big two of the future. Further more America relies on the Chinese buying American bonds to finance America’s recovery,so it is not in America’s interest for Australia to start rocking the boat by saying China could be a threat.
Australia has to look to the future and the Chinese are very nationalistic. There is enough evidence available that says China does have plans for the future that do not include sharing the World with America.
It is true China is no match for America at the moment but in 20 to 30 years time things could be different. The U.S.A. will no longer be a majority white nation and Bush may very well be the last white President.
America’s future majority Hispanic population will not be worried by China being a rival to America and will not come to Australia’s aid if China threatens us,so where do our interests lie?
India and Japan would seem to be the answer,but in such an alliance we would have to pull our weight and that means the nuclear option. It will take us at least 20 years to develop that capacity,so it should be considered now.
Do not forget Hitler was not a threat in 1930 and Russia was expected to collapse before the German onslaught in World War 2.
If history has anything to say,it is that the democracies usually leave rearming until nearly too late.
